quarta-feira, janeiro 03, 2018

A Aposta de 1 Milhão de Dólares

Já viu a aposta que Warren Buffett fez sobre o nível de performance de um portfólio de fundos de fundos? 

Buffett apostou um milhão de dólares na previsão de que o S&P 500 iria performar acima do portfólio no período de 01/01/2008 a 31/12/2017.

A Protégé Partners, uma asset management, aceitou a aposta e argumentou que hedge funds podem sim proporcionar retornos superiores a fundos de índices, em vista de diversas estratégias e ativos que podem ser negociados.

Veja o argumento de Buffett abaixo:

A lot of very smart people set out to do better than average in securities markets. Call them active investors. 
Their opposites, passive investors, will by definition do about average. In aggregate their positions will more or less approximate those of an index fund. Therefore the balance of the universe—the active investors—must do about average as well. However, these investors will incur far greater costs. So, on balance, their aggregate results after these costs will be worse than those of the passive investors. 
Costs skyrocket when large annual fees, large performance fees, and active trading costs are all added to the active investor’s equation. Funds of hedge funds accentuate this cost problem because their fees are superimposed on the large fees charged by the hedge funds in which the funds of funds are invested. 
A number of smart people are involved in running hedge funds. But to a great extent their efforts are self-neutralizing, and their IQ will not overcome the costs they impose on investors. Investors, on average and over time, will do better with a low-cost index fund than with a group of funds of funds.

Até hoje o site da aposta não foi atualizado, embora o hedgie que apostou contra Buffett tenha aceitado antes do término que havia perdido a aposta (ver: Hedge Fund Manager Who Lost Bet With Buffett Sours on Long/Short EquityWhy I Lost My Bet With Warren Buffett).

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